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Comorbidity as the dominant predictor of mortality after hip fracture surgeries

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Abstract

Summary

The aim of this study was to investigate the association of surgical delay and comorbidities with the risk of mortality after hip fracture surgeries. We found that CCI was the dominant factor in predicting both short- and long-term mortality, and its effect is vital in the prognostication of survivorship.

Introduction

Hip fracture is a growing concern and a delay in surgery is often associated with a poorer outcome. We hypothesized that a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) portends greater risk of mortality than a delay in surgery. Our aim was to investigate the associations of surgical delay and CCI with risk of mortality and to determine the dominant predictor.

Methods

This retrospective study examines hip fracture data from a large tertiary hospital in Singapore over the period January 2013 through December 2015. Data collected included age, gender, CCI, delay of surgery, fracture patterns, and the American Society of Anaesthesiologist (ASA) score. Post-operative outcomes analyzed included mortality at inpatient, at 30 and 90 days, and at 2 years.

Results

A total of 1004 patients with hip fractures were included in this study. Study mortality rates were 1.1% (n = 11) during in-hospital admission, 1.8% (n = 18) at 30 days, 2.7% (n = 27) at 90 days, and 13.3% (n = 129) at 2 years. Lost to follow-up rate at 2 years was 3.3%. We found that CCI was consistently the dominant factor in predicting both short- and long-term mortality. A CCI score of 5 was identified as the inflection point above which comorbidity at baseline presented a greater risk of mortality than a delay in surgery.

Conclusion

Our analysis showed that CCI is the dominant predictor of both short- and long-term mortality compared with delay in surgery. The effect of CCI is vital in the prognostication of mortality in patients surgically treated for hip fractures.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore, Singapore

    Eric Wei Liang Cher, Tet Sen Howe & Joyce Suang Bee Koh

  2. Centre of Quantitative Medicine, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore

    John Carson Allen

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  1. Eric Wei Liang Cher
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  4. Joyce Suang Bee Koh
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Correspondence to Eric Wei Liang Cher.

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This study (CRIB Ref: 2015/2134) was approved by the SingHealth Centralised Institutional Review Board, Singapore.

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Cher, E.W.L., Allen, J.C., Howe, T.S. et al. Comorbidity as the dominant predictor of mortality after hip fracture surgeries. Osteoporos Int 30, 2477–2483 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00198-019-05139-8

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