A comparison of future recruitment needs in urban and rural hospitals: the rural imperative

Background: The potential impact of shortages of the surgical workforce on both urban and rural hospitals is undefined. There is a predicted shortage of 30,000 surgeons by 2030 and the need to train and hire more than 100,000 surgeons. The aim of this study is to estimate the average recruitment needs in our nation's hospitals for 7 surgical specialties to ensure adequate access to surgical care as the U.S. population grows to 364 million by 2030.

Methods: We used the census figure of 309 million in 2010 for U.S. population. Currently there are estimated to be 3,012 urban hospitals and 1,998 rural hospitals in the U.S. (American Hospital Association's Trend Watch report, 2009). At 253 million people (82 % of the population of 309 million in 2010) receive healthcare in urban hospitals; 56 million people receive healthcare in rural hospitals (18%). We assumed a work force model based on our previous publications, equal population growth in all geographic areas, recruitment by rural hospitals limited to Ob-Gyn, General Surgery, and Orthopedics, and that the percentage of the population receiving care at urban and rural hospitals will stay constant.

Results: Rural hospitals will have to recruit an average of 3.4 OBGYN's, and an average of 1.6 Orthos, and 2.0 GS for a total of 7 full-time equivalents in the period from 2011 to 2030. Urban hospitals which have to recruit surgical specialists will have to recruit ten Ob-Gyns, about 5 Orthos, 6 GS's, 5 ear, nose, and throat surgeons (ENT's), an average of 2.5 urologists, a neurosurgeon, and a thoracic surgeon to meet the recruiting goals for the surgical services for their hospitals.

Conclusion: Rural hospitals will be in competition with urban hospitals for hiring from a limited pool of surgeons. As urban hospitals have a socioeconomic advantage in hiring, surgical care in rural areas may be at risk. It is imperative that each rural hospital analyze local future healthcare needs and devise strategies that will enhance hiring and retention to optimize access to surgical care.